bayes probability case

THe enterprise achetypes need a selection from a sample of people to prove a perfume in order to know the uptake of the product. The sampling is compose for 40 children, 70 women, 60 men and 30 elders. The experiment found a rejection in each group its like this:

children->20%

women->10>

men->30%

elder->40%

its required then to find the percentage of people who reject the product. Using bayes theorem we have:

(0.2)(0.2)+(0.1)(0.35)+(0.3)(0.3)+(0.4)(0.15) =

(0.04)+(0.035)+(0.09)+(0.06)=0.225

Conclusions:

– 22,5% of sample reject the product

– the perfume was more rejected between elders and men than women and childrens

– most of people who reject the perfume were men.

 

Suppose besides that we select randomly a someone who reject the product, ¿what’s the ṕrobability that this someone are a children?

(0.04)/[(0.04)+(0.035)+(0.09)+(0.06)] = 0.04/0.225 = 0,17

– so the probability to this someone select are a children is over 17% aprox.

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