confidence range problem

A big enterprise joint an inform about differents polls about us candidates to president. this polls give us the next dates:

 people surveyed  poll confidence level  voting intention
 candidate red  1000  80%  28%
 candidate blue  2000  50%  26%
 candidate green  1500  90%  24%
 candidate yellow  200  99% 20%

Suppose you can show this polls to someone but not telling the numbers of survey people nor the confidence level. Select two bets you feel be able to make knowing its something really possible (and even considerably high probably)

resolve

we use the next equation in every candidate

1- candidate yellow

P +- Z*(PQ/n)^0,5*[(N-n)/(N-1)]^0,5=

0,2 +-2,58*(0,2*0,8/200)^0,5*[(1000000-200)/(999999)]^0,5=

0,2+- 2,58*0,0283*0,9999=

0,2 +- 0,073

the yellow candidate should have a voting in favor in the range between 12,7% and 27,3% percent. Considering there is a big range you should expect almost every posibility about this candidate sonsidering the poll doesn’t give us a big help.

2- candidate green

P +- Z*(PQ/n)^0,5*[(N-n)/(N-1)]^0,5=

0,24 +-1,65*(0,24*0,76/1500)^0,5*[(1000000-1500)/(999999)]^0,5=

0,24+- 1,65*0,011*0,9993=

0,24 +- 0,0181=

Then the green candidate should have a voting intention in favor between 22,19% and 25,81%. Most of surveys respect to the other candidate make a big difference respect to rightness.

3- candidate blue

P +- Z*(PQ/n)^0,5*[(N-n)/(N-1)]^0,5=

0,26 +-0,67*(0,26*0,74/2000)^0,5*[(1000000-2000)/(999999)]^0,5=

0,26+- 0,67*0,0098*0,999=

0,26 +- 0,0066=

blue candidate voting intention should be between 25,34% and 26,66%

3- candidate red

P +- Z*(PQ/n)^0,5*[(N-n)/(N-1)]^0,5=

0,28 +1,28*(0,28*0,72/1000)^0,5*[(1000000-1000)/(999999)]^0,5=

0,28+- 0,67*0,0142*0,9995=

0,28 +- 0,0095=

red candidate voting intention should be between 27,05% and 28,95%

 

Possible results

– red candidate should never be down of blue candidate, even they both are in the top compiting for first place.

– yellow candidate even considering he is on the last place can really beat red candidate.

– votes for green and yellow candidate can superb  the plus of red and blue candidaten, surprisily considering they are in the top of table.

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bayes probability case

THe enterprise achetypes need a selection from a sample of people to prove a perfume in order to know the uptake of the product. The sampling is compose for 40 children, 70 women, 60 men and 30 elders. The experiment found a rejection in each group its like this:

children->20%

women->10>

men->30%

elder->40%

its required then to find the percentage of people who reject the product. Using bayes theorem we have:

(0.2)(0.2)+(0.1)(0.35)+(0.3)(0.3)+(0.4)(0.15) =

(0.04)+(0.035)+(0.09)+(0.06)=0.225

Conclusions:

– 22,5% of sample reject the product

– the perfume was more rejected between elders and men than women and childrens

– most of people who reject the perfume were men.

 

Suppose besides that we select randomly a someone who reject the product, ¿what’s the ṕrobability that this someone are a children?

(0.04)/[(0.04)+(0.035)+(0.09)+(0.06)] = 0.04/0.225 = 0,17

– so the probability to this someone select are a children is over 17% aprox.

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Cryptocat now for movile chat

The encrypted chat app is now now available for IPhone and IPad providing user a new option to mobile security. Difference to other options cryptocat doesn’t require fixed username or accounts, instead users can use a disposable account name while chatting.  Cryptocat not have user history or options, therefore users can mae a encrypted conversations inmediately without any historial can be tracked.

Cryptocat is already prepared for chrome, mozilla and opera. Besides, according to Kobeissi, cryptocat creator, an Android version wil coming soon. Cryptocat became famous few time ago when this proyect increased speedly, in this time when information security became in a mean issue.

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Is Windows 9 coming soon?

Windows are struggling for a big issue, Windows 7 and 8 are not upgrading even when Windows xp support were over since one month before. It seem they could be preparing windows 9 since windows 8 were not  very well for many xp users, which mohe them to create a new system thinking in a desktop more friendly with traditional users. Windows 8.1 was release just in october, this added traditional options like starting button option and booting up the desktop. Of course there are a problem still to resolve, aparently Windows 9 would not be launch until october of this year.

For a while Windows expect xp users come to zero since the sould have a big struggle with malware developers stopped until now for Windows support constantly effort, but not anymore. So this is last option windows have to make people dessert from his old operative system.

This mean users with old hardware should be bound to upgrade it and use windows 7 (only windows operative system how can compare to xp in stability) or at least that’s expect for microsoft. But virus enterprises would keep making upgrades for windows xp so there should be a real option to keep in the old OS for few more time.

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Russia next move prepared?

The Ukranian black sea peninsula should take a big decision in the next 10 days, join or not to Russia. The accelerated movement respond to the pressure Europe and US government put to stop Russian forces. European leader’s gathered to find a effective way to pressure Russia leaders. US president Barac Obama already took step to punish to those how threat the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine, he would order freeze their US assets and ban travels to his country.

US beside has taking military steps with navy-missile destroyer heading to black sea. This announcement is most serious confrontation since cold war end. But times ha change, Russia it’s not any more a socialist republic, their stock fell and ruble weakened futher after recent event. For a while Ukranian government has said Crimea independent referendum is not legal. They will receive two questions, should be Crimea part of the Russian federation or should Crimea return to an earlier constitution?. 

Crimea citizens  should decide if join to Russia or not. They has a moral liberty to select the best way but they really now Russia is a dictatorship? really want to lose their sovereign? I think an own country seem to be best decision but seem they want to join russia in the same way many people in another century select keeping like slaves and not take their right to freedom.

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Tesla car, is already prepared?

Elon musk, Tesla motors CEO seems to be prepared to do the next move. He is preparing 2 billions for create the first gigafactory, a large-scale battery production will begin. The purpose is to control 1% of world car production, this is first pass to break oil monopoly in the business. Its clearly easiest tell to make it, Elon has many walls to break before advance. Large scale production is still too expensive for wide scale adoption,

Tesla motor can produce electricity using solar panels to store energy during the day. Proyect are going ahead after Morgan Stanley more than doubled its proyected price for the stock.

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Stay cool, bitcoin will survive

Chomsky already say it, journalism has to respond to revenues. Advertisement, financing, social view, there are many reasons why we can’t get clean information. ¿It’s really Mt Gox fall such a big issue? not really, just in the way press sell to socieaty that is a great punch to bitcoin proyect. It’s few probably you can find any big media defending bitcoin proyect, bosses can consider that a betray. They demand its useless try to create an exchange medium without any physical guarantee or any goverment support.

Kolin Burges (R), a self-styled cryptocurrency trader and former software engineer from London, holds a placard to protest against Mt. Gox, as photographers take photos of him in front of the building where the digital marketplace operator was formerly housed in Tokyo February 26, 2014. REUTERS-Toru Hanai

That seems to me like a hasty generalization, so used technique in economy to lie and deceive. Infortunately econocmist can’t make experiments about his teories like scientists do it, that’s why they create theories using just few information, but problem is if you do that you can create falacies, and sometimes in purpose. At the end bitcoin and any other exchange medium  is just like any other product or services, their value depends to offer and demand, not more. Bitcoin it’s not to do rich any speculator, it’s about privacy, freedom, so don’t pretend we would stop this because the first stumbling.

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